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UK CPI inflation and US retail sales in the spotlight
On Wednesday August 15th 2018 the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish a report regarding the United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in July 2018. Another ONS report will show how much UK retail prices changed during July 2018. In the United States (US), the US Census Bureau is expected to release data associated with the retail sales in July 2018. 

UK CPI inflation

The most important of the releases is the UK’s CPI inflation data. The CPI is an indicator used to measure the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall, which is the rate of inflation, referred to as the CPI inflation. Analysts are anticipating that the CPI inflation picked up coming in at 2.5%, on an annualised basis. In June 2018, the UK’s CPI inflation came in at 2.4% on annualised basis, unchanged from May 2018 and below the analysts’ expectations for a 2.6% figure. The 2.4% CPI inflation figure is the lowest reading since March 2017.

 The ONS will also release data regarding the UK’s core CPI inflation in July 2018. Core CPI inflation is inflation excluding the prices of seasonally volatile products such as food and energy. According to analysts’ forecasts, the UK’s core CPI inflation is expected to have increased from 1.9% recorded in June 2018 to 2.2% in July 2018 on a year-to-year basis.

 Market experts are expected to scrutinize another ONS report regarding the Retail Price Index in July 2018. The Retail Price Index (RPI) measures changes in the prices of goods and services bought for household consumption in the UK. The RPI takes a large sample of retail goods including food, tobacco, household goods and services, transport fares, motoring costs, clothing, and leisure goods and services. An increase in the index means that prices have increased on average (inflation) while a decrease means that prices on the whole have fallen (deflation). Economists forecast that the RPI increased by 3.6% on a yearly basis during July 2018 and by 0.4% on a month to month basis. 

US retail sales in July 2018

In the US, the most significant financial updates of the day will be linked with the retail sales. The retail sales data is awaited as they will give a first glance at the strength of consumer spending as the third financial quarter of the year starts. Economists forecast that the US retail sales surged by 0.1% on a monthly basis, a reduced pace of growth when comparing with the 0.5% figure recorded in June 2018. 

However, market analysts will take into consideration the so called “retail control” alternative measure of sales which is used by the US financial authorities to calculate the country’s GDP growth. They expect that this measure will show the retail sales rebounding by 0.4% on a month-to-month basis after being flat in June 2018. 

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