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Fundamental Analysis 25.05.2018 – Market Outlook

Market Recap

Modest movements in most currencies, especially considering the surprising news that US President Donald Trump is calling off his meeting with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. US stocks closed down slightly but well off the lows, while Tokyo stocks are higher this morning and South Korea down only by a small amount, so the move clearly isn’t disturbing the world that much. 

The only currency showing a notable move was CAD,  which plunged on Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on US auto imports under US national security grounds. A spokesman for Canada’s foreign minister said it was “inconceivable” that Canada would pose “any kind of security threat to the US.” Mexico is actually the #1 exporter of autos to the US, followed by Canada. 

Oil was down after Russia's energy minister Alexander Valentinovich Novak said that at their Tuesday 22nd of June 2018 meeting, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would discuss reversing the group’s production curbs and increasing output to compensate for falling production in Venezuela and the loss of global supply caused by new US sanctions on Iran. Libya also recently announced that it would curb production by 120k bbl/day because of power shortages. All this is pushing prices up to levels that OPEC fears will dampen long-term demand for oil, so they want to keep prices from rising further.

UK retail sales were much better than expected (+1.6% mom vs +0.9% expected, -1.1% previous). It didn’t help the pound much however, which suggests that sentiment for the British currency remains weak as politics dominate. 

Today’s market

The day starts with the Ifo indices for May 2018. They’re expected to be down just marginally, really nothing major at all, considering that the current assessment hit a record high in February 2018 and the business climate hit a record high last November (the data goes back to 2005). This compares with Wednesday’s 23rd of May 2018 German Purchasing Manager's Index (PMIs), which fell more than expected (albeit also remaining at a fairly high level). I think this indication that activity is stabilizing at a relatively high level would be taken as good news for Germany and the euro.



UK Finance housing loans are forecast to continue their recent decline. There was an upsurge in January 2018, but since then they’ve been coming back down steadily, resuming the decline that started a few months before the Brexit vote. This should be negative for GBP.

The second estimate of Britain’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rarely brings any revision to the main figures, just details about the composition of the figures.

  

The big indicator of the day is US durable goods. The headline figure, which is the one that the FX market usually focuses on, is expected to fall on a mom basis, but that’s entirely due to the big aircraft orders in the previous month. Excluding transportation, it’s expected to show a decent rise, which should reinforce expectations of +3.0% or so GDP growth in Q2 and therefore could be positive for the dollar.

 

The Sveriges Riksbank – Sweden’s central bank – is 350 years old this year, the oldest central bank in the world. It’s holding a commemorative conference today. The conference is in two parts:  the morning is for a Swedish audience and the afternoon is aimed at an international audience. The afternoon session will feature a panel discussion with Federal Reserve System (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, Bank of England Governor John Carney, European Central Bank (ECB) Board member Coeure, plus Bank of International Settlements (BIS) General Manager Agustin Carstens. There’s some disagreement though on what the panel discussion will be about. The Riksbank’s web site says:  Panel discussion: The future of central banking? But the Fed’s web site says Panel Discussion:  Financial Stability and Central Bank Transparency.  

Later in the day, Dallas Fed President Robert Steven Kaplan,  Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speak on a panel discussion on “Technology-Enabled Disruption:  Implications for Business, Labor Markets and Monetary Policy” at the Dallas Fed.



The Fundamental Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler who is an external service provider of Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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